Quit worrying: Winter is here to stay, and so is the ice

This morning over breakfast I read the newspaper, as is my daily habit.  The last thing I do is check the weather section. While not exactly accurate, it does give me a general idea of what to expect over the next ten days, and I use that to guide my fishing.  For example, if I know a front is coming Saturday, and I can fish either Saturday or Sunday, I’ll make sure to be on the water Saturday.

This morning I noticed we’re looking at maybe a week where the highs will get above freezing. For me that means it’s time to go fishing, including ICE FISHING.  Why? Because it’ll be comfortable and my hands won’t hurt (too many frostbitten days in my history). 

However, I also know there will be a large number of folks posting, “It's warming, will the ice be safe?”  I suspect almost all of them were asleep in science class, which I assume is still required in high school.

So let’s review a couple basic water facts.  First, air temperatures, when the air is colder than 32 degrees Fahrenheit, zero degrees Celsius, it means air contact with water at that temperature (32) will cause it to begin to freeze, warmer, water or ice will also warm.  However, in a day there are twenty-hours, and during that period this time of the year some hours the temperature will be below freezing, others above.  The question is will there be more freezing or thawing on that day.  The actual high or low really doesn’t matter.  On average is it freezing?  If so ice will be made, if not ice will be lost.

Now you could go through and figure the average by adding the temperature each hour, and dividing by 24.  A royal pain, even if you could find the data.  I did a bit of empirical testing and found that if you add the daily low and high then divide by two that number is very close to the daily average temperature got by adding all 24 hourly temperatures and dividing by 24.  Point is if the daily average is below 32 Fahrenheit, then ice may form, above it some ice will be lost.

But that’s not the end of the story.  It takes a lot of energy to convert water to ice, and ice to water.  Wake up!  This is what you missed in science class that will help with your ice fishing.  A calorie is defined as the energy to raise one gram of water one degree Celsius.  No big deal, it’s just a definition.  But here’s the important part, while it only takes one calorie to warm or cool a gram of water one degree Celsius, it takes 80 calories to convert a gram of ice to water or water to ice.  DID YOU GET THAT? IT TAKES 80 TIMES AS MUCH ENERGY TO CHANGE ICE TO WATER AS IT TAKES WATER TO CHANGE ONE DEGREE.  Yes I yelled. But hey, you were the one sleeping is science class.

The point is this, a few days of mild weather this time of year will slow the ice formation, and it may even thin it ever so slightly.  But barring high winds coupled with warm temperatues or the reservoir rising (thins the shoreline ice), the ice won’t change much.  If you considered it OK to fish on a couple days earlier, it will be much the same over the next few days.

So quit the worry already, use caution, and go fishing.